Reports Database:
A CLEARER PATH FORWARD: Social Return on Investment of a more accessible diagnostic test to increase certainty of Alzheimer’s disease in Australia and New Zealand

Executive summary

This report presents a forecast Social Return on Investment (SROI) analysis, aimed at predicting the broader societal impact that could be achieved through investing in an accessible diagnostic test intended to identify people who present with early signs or symptoms of potential Alzheimer’s disease (AD) with amyloid pathology. This analysis focuses on people living with dementia that is likely to be AD, their families and carers over a three-year period.

To capture this value, interviews were conducted with:

• people living with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), mild dementia and AD,
• their families and carers, and
• specialists involved with the care of people living with dementia (e.g. neurologists and geriatric psychologists).

Broader societal impacts for people receiving a test, their families and carers, and the Australian and New Zealand Governments were evaluated, including those not usually considered in traditional cost-effectiveness analyses. The SROI analysis revealed wide-ranging impacts experienced for both people living with AD and their families and carers, including maintaining independence, achieving a sense of peace or acceptance, and avoiding the cost of a prolonged diagnostic journey. These impacts arose from an improved ability to diagnose AD in its earlier stages, highlighting the importance of a certain and early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease for a person’s quality of life.

This analysis is a valuable tool to shift the conversation from the cost of diagnostic tests for AD, to their value and impact. Importantly, as there are no disease modifying therapies currently reimbursed in Australia or New Zealand, this analysis does not rely on the impact of potential therapies to generate value. Rather, it reflects the value of knowing and increased certainty of diagnosis, which reduces psychological burden and allows people living with AD to implement lifestyle changes to delay or limit disease progression (International Longevity Centre UK 2025; Ornish et al. 2024). This report captures insights into the value of a diagnostic test with improved certainty for early AD diagnosis, and the difference this can make not only for people living with AD but also for their families and carers. This also underscores the urgent and substantial unmet need to better support the diagnostic journey for people seeking clarity about their cognitive symptoms, and the broader societal benefits that may arise in Australia and New Zealand from access to a diagnostic test that provides greater certainty regarding the cause of their symptoms.

SROI in Australia

In the base care, the SROI ratio in Australia was estimated to be 18.65, indicating that for every $1 invested into a diagnostic test with improved accessibility and diagnostic certainty for AD, $18.65 worth of social value is created. The value created was shared between people with likely AD (27%), their partners (22%), and their children (61%). The larger share of value attributed to children reflects the greater number of children affected per person with AD (approximately 2 children for every person with AD), rather than a higher per-person benefit. At an individual level, the social value generated for children ($4,103) was comparable to that generated for partners ($5,173). The analysis also identified two groups who may incur a societal cost as a result of the test: the Australian Government (-9%), and people unlikely to have AD (-1%).

Much of the value was non-economic in nature and thus would not be captured in a traditional cost–benefit analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that the investment would continue to generate positive social value, even under a range of highly conservative assumptions (SROI ratio range: 9.40 to 28.19).

SROI in New Zealand

In the base care, the SROI ratio was estimated to be 18.21, indicating that for every $1 invested into a diagnostic test with improved accessibility and diagnostic certainty for AD, $18.21 worth of social value is created. The value created was shared between people with likely AD (20%), their partners (22%), and their children (67%). The larger share of value attributed to children reflects the greater number of children affected per person with AD (approximately 2 children for every person with AD), rather than a higher per-person benefit. At an individual level, the social value generated for children ($3,603) was comparable to that generated for partners ($4,365). The analysis also identified two groups who may incur a societal cost as a result of the test: the New Zealand Government (-7%), and people unlikely to have AD (-1%). Much of the value was non-economic in nature and thus would not be captured in a traditional cost–benefit analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that the investment would continue to generate positive social value, even under a range of highly conservative assumptions (SROI ratio range: 8.99 to 26.54).